Without them the continent’s population will start to shrink.
EUROPE’S biggest countries were once among the biggest anywhere. In 1950, four of the world’s ten most populous states were in western Europe alone. But decades of falling birth rates have resulted in slower population growth in Europe than in other regions. By 2017, Europe’s most populous country, Germany, ranked just 16th globally. The continent’s birth rate is now so low that the total population in many European countries has begun to decline.
One solution is to attract more foreigners. This week Eurostat, the European Union‘s statistics agency, said that the region‘s population rose in 2016 solely because of immigration. The number of births and deaths were equal at 5.1m each, while net migration boosted the population by 1.5m to 511.8m. In 13 of its 28 member countries, more people died than were born last year. But not all saw their populations fall. A large intake of migrants to Germany (mainly Syrian refugees), and smaller net migration to Finland and Poland, meant that populations there still managed to grow.
For all the political difficulties migrants can cause, Europe will need more of them if it wants to avoid shrinking. By 2050, Eurostat estimates that only Ireland, France, Norway and Britain would see their populations rise without migration. In contrast, Germany and Italy need migrants badly: without newcomers, they would face declines of 18% and 16%. And even if migration does continue, Eurostat’s central forecast reckons that Germany will still only just about maintain its current population of 82.8m.
Even sustaining migration at current levels is unlikely to prevent most eastern and Mediterranean countries from shrinking. The former group has been losing people ever since the break-up of the Soviet Union. When those countries joined the EU, large shares of their populations emigrated to richer EU member countries to work, and most of them have stayed there. In Latvia, one of five countries where Eurostat projects emigration will worsen demographic decline, the population fell by a whopping 14% last year. For those who leave, the freedom to live and work where they choose is an immense boon. But the countries where they were raised face a hard task. They must to attract and retain new workers, or increase their birth rates, or learn to live with a declining population.
Original: https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/07/daily-chart-6
如果没有新移民加入，未来欧洲大陆的人口将开始缩减。
曾经，欧洲几个最大国家的人口数在全球范围内位居前几位。1950年，世界十大人口最多的国家中，仅西欧地区就占据4个。与其他地区相比，由于欧洲近几十年出生率下降而导致欧洲人口的增长速度变缓。2017年，欧洲人口最稠密的国家，德国，仅在全球排名第16位。欧洲大陆的出生率之低使得许多欧洲国家的人口总数开始下降。
解决这个问题的方法之一是吸引更多的外国人来此居住。本周欧盟统计局，欧盟的数据统计机构报告说2016年欧洲地区人口增加的原因只是由于移民的加入。新生人口数与死亡量持平，都为5.1m，然而净移民量由1.5m暴增至511.8m。去年，欧盟28个国家中，有13个国家的死亡量高于新生人口数。但是很多国家并未意识到人口下降。大量移民涌入德国（主要是叙利亚难民），少量净移民进入芬兰和波兰，意味着这些国家仍在设法增加人口。
对于移民产生的所有政治难题，如果欧洲国家想要避免人口缩减，还是需要接受这些难题。欧盟统计局预测，到2050年，只有爱尔兰、法国、挪威和英国在没有移民加入的情况下，人口量将增加。相反，德国和意大利急需移民：如果没有新移民加入，他们将面临18%和16%的人口锐减。欧盟统计局的中央预测人员认为，即使移民增加，也只能使德国保持在目前的人口水平上82.8m。
即使在目前人口基数上持续增加移民数，也无法阻止大部分东欧和地中海国家人口缩减。自前苏联解体以来，东欧各国人口一直往外流动。自东欧加入欧盟之后，这些国家的大量人口都移居到更富裕的欧盟成员国内工作，并且他们中的大部分人都定居于此。欧盟统计局预测移民使其国内人口下降恶化的五个国家之一拉托维亚，该国去年的人口量下降了14%。对于那些移居国外的人来说，可以自由地选择居住和工作地是巨大的福祉。但是他们所处的国家也面临着巨大的挑战。这些国家必须吸引并留住新移民，或者增加本国的新生儿出生率，或者学会接受人口下降这一事实。
资料来源：https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/07/daily-chart-6